Goals from Alli, Son and Eriksen had shown exactly why they are Chelseas closest challengers and why the likes of Arsenal, Liverpool and the two Manchester sides are not. The commitment to fight until the end, even if things haven’t gone your way for the majority of the game have been the difference maker for the North London side.
Meanwhile, at the bottom, its looking that as Newcastle comes back into the Premier League rivals Sunderland, and possibly Middlesbrough, will head in the other direction. Certainly Boro, with their defeat away to relegation rivals Hull City, now find themselves seven points from safety and in real trouble.
So how will it all shake up at the end of the season? Who will find themselves out of the Premier League? Will Arsenal make the top four? Have Spurs left it too late to really challenge? Starting at the bottom, I’ll let you know how I think it will all end.
Relegation:
Sunderland I think are gone, unless they can perform an absolute miracle. Yes they still have enough games, mathematically, to do it, but will need ten of those available twenty eight points available just to catch the team currently occupying that safe spot. That does not include the points accumulated by other sides around them in that time and I just don’t see Sunderland having enough about them to make that happen.
This Sunday they host Manchester United and I see that game possibly being a draw, if Sunderland play as well as they possibly can and United are slightly below their usual below par standard. After that they do somewhat have their fate in their own hands when they face West Ham, Middlesbrough, Bournemouth, Hull City and Swansea in the final run. While it is good, in one respect, they face teams around them, it is also a bad thing as defeats would impact them twice, not only losing the game, but having three points awarded to the opposition.
Middlesbrough are also next in line to go down. Three points better off than Sunderland they don’t seem to have anything to give me a reason to think they could go on a run and escape the drop. Five of their eight remaining games are at home but two are against Arsenal and Manchester City. Two of the three away games are against Liverpool and Chelsea so essentially, even a good point against these sides, still leave them needing too many points. Certainly a win against Burnley on Saturday would give them a little bit of hope, but they would also need wins away to Bournemouth and home to Sunderland to give them a chance going into May and the home fixture against Southampton.
Burnley and above I think are safe sides right now and so it leaves West Ham, Palace, Hull and Swansea in danger of joining Sunderland and, most likely Boro, in going down. This weekend a big game is the West Ham v Swansea fixture. A win for the Hammers would put them onto thirty six points, and in my mind safe however, Swansea have not been pushovers recently (in 88 minutes anyway). Hull goes to Manchester City who will be desperate for the win in order to keep a top four finish on track while Palace host Arsenal on the Monday. If I was to be put on the spot I would have to say that Hull City will ultimately be the side to find themselves in that bottom three when the final whistle goes on May 21st.
Champions and Top Four.
The first question when figuring out whether Tottenham can catch Chelsea is not simply ‘Can Tottenham catch Chelsea’ but how many points will Tootenham drop from now until the end of the season? Antonio Conte has said that Chelsea needs 18 points to secure the title, and if Spurs win all their games then that’s true. Both sides have just the one distraction outside of the Premier League and that is when they both face each other in the FA Cup Semi Final on Saturday 22nd April.
I can only see Spurs getting fifteen points from the remaining matches, which will give them eighty points, meaning Chelsea only need three wins from their final eight games, somthing I think they will have before we enter May.
Those fifteen points will be enough for Spurs to secure second position and so now only two Champions League places remain for the next four sides (I believe Everton are too far back to make a serious run at the top four).
Liverpool and Manchester City currently occupy those two spots but United and Arsenal are hot on their heels and can more than bridge the gap. All four sides have let points go from games they were winning or should have won. Liverpool have done well against sides in and around them but not as well against sides in the lower part of the table and, unfortunately, that’s the exact kind of team they face in the run in, with half currently in the bottom half and three of those currently in danger of relegation.
Manchester City have done better against the lower placed sides but the only consistency they’ve had all season is their inconsistency. With an FA Cup semi final coming up it is still up in the air as to what City side will be more evident in the run in, the free flowing attacking side or the nervy defending side. If it the former then I can see them overtaking Liverpool and closing the points gap on Spurs, although third will be the highest they will get barring an implosion from Spurs.
Neighbors United have been just as disappointing this season, but still have the Europa League to contest. Would they be viewing that as a better chance of Champions League football next season that a top four finish? Possibly, but although they are the favorites remaining, they tend not to do too well when they are the favorites. Baring in mind what I have recently said about Liverpool’s form against just the kind of sides they are left to play, they might be an outside bet for challenging Liverpool for a top four season. With two games in hand over one of their biggest rivals they might just be able to pull it off.
Arsenal are actually between the two Manchester sides with two games in hand over Liverpool and the same points back as United. Their distraction comes when they play City in the FA Cup Semi Final but have always made it in the top four. With Arsene Wengers future yet to be decided I would like to think they could get form together to get the top four, and he take that opportunity to depart the dugout with some kind of dignity.
I certainly think they can do it and will get the result they need against Manchester United at the Emirates when they meet in May to secure the top four for yet another season. Liverpool will finish fifth with Manchester United getting in Europe again, although they will finish sixth.
Jason is a Freelance Soccer Writer. You can follow him on Twitter @PACityboy and www.facebook.com/jasonbardwell1979
No comments:
Post a Comment